Francl said the progress of the U.S. corn and soybean crops typically run in tandem, but weather patterns in the major producing states in July made growing conditions more favorable for corn compared to soybeans. Francl emphasized that it is still very early in the crop year and conditions could change as the harvest nears.

“While the weather in July turned almost ideal for corn throughout much of the Corn Belt, the soybean crop continued to struggle with later plantings and uneven stands as reflected in the August Crop Production Report,” Francl said. “Soybeans are now in the flowering and pod-filling mode so a better assessment of the crop’s condition will be forthcoming in the September report.”

Despite June’s severe flooding in the Midwest, U.S. farmers are on pace to produce the second-largest corn crop and fourth-largest soybean crop in history.

USDA’s first survey-based forecast for 2008 pegs U.S. corn production at 12.3 billion bushels, up 573 million bushels from last month’s projection with higher forecast yields and increased harvested area. Last year, corn farmers harvested a record 13.07 billion bushels.

Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, corn yields are expected to average 155 bushels per acre, up 3.9 bushels from last year. If realized, this would be the second-highest corn yield on record, behind 2004.

USDA pegs U.S. soybean production at 2.973 billion bushels, down 27 million from the July projection, but 388 million bushels above last year’s crop. Soybean yields are expected to average 40.5 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from 2007.

Francl said yields in all of the top-five corn producing states, with the exception of Illinois, either matched or exceeded yield numbers in 2007. “Illinois was only off two bushels per acre, but what was unexpected was that Iowa’s estimated yield of 171 bushels per acre was unchanged from last year.”

In mid-June, analysts were projecting that the Iowa corn crop could be reduced 10 percent to 15 percent due to heavy flooding and rain-delayed plantings, Francl explained. Excellent growing conditions in July made up for difficult conditions in June in Iowa.

“In contrast to corn, the yields in all but one of the top five soybean-producing states, which are the same states for corn, are estimated to be less than in 2007,” Francl explained. “The soybean outlook still has plenty of time to improve. The crucial pollination period for corn typically occurs in July while soybean pollination typically takes place in August.”

Contacts: Tracy Taylor Grondine (202) 406-3642 tracyg@fb.org John Hart (202) 406-3659 johnh@fb.org
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